Mathematical Modelling on Impact of Interventions in the Spread of Covid-19 in Kenya
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Date
2023
Authors
Mwangi, Lucas M.
Mutuku, Winifred N.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
JAMCS
Abstract
The history of coronavirus can be traced to the 1960s when B184 and 229E coronaviruses were discovered in
the nasal washing of individuals with the common cold. There was no worry about such viruses until 2003
when the first major outbreak of SARS was discovered in southern China. The recent outbreak was in 2019
when a major outbreak of COVID-19 strain started in China. The World Health Organisation proclaimed
COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. Ever since this pandemic, several attempts to intervene in the
spread has been tried, yet the pandemic is not dying. This persistence in the pandemic might be due to
the presence of asymptomatic individuals. This unending pandemic has hit the Kenya economy badly. In
this study, we mathematically investigate the effect of governmental and non-governmental intervention on
the spread of COVID-19 in Kenya. To capture the effect of intervention effectively, the model considers the
presence of asymptomatically infected individuals in the Kenya. The basic reproduction number is obtained
using the next-generation matrix and the local stability of the equilibrium points are established.The effects of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 are simulated and illustrated as graphs. The results
indicate that intervention in form awareness and public sensitisation reduces the Exposed class, Infected
Classes and COVID-19-related death.
Description
Article
Keywords
Coronavirus, transmissions, outbreak, infected class, symptomatic dynamics, mathematical modelling
Citation
https://doi.org/10.9734/jamcs/2023/v38i11737