Impacts of Climate Variability on the Outbreak and Spread of Newcastle Disease in Poultry Farming in Kisii County, Kenya
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Date
2022
Authors
Sese, Henry Hodgeb Maringo
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Kenyatta University
Abstract
Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species caused by Avian Paramyxovirus Type 1 virus. A highly contagious and often-severe disease that occurs globally and causes devastating losses in both commercial and village chickens. The study sought to examine the impact of climate variability on the outbreak and spread of the Newcastle disease in Kisii County, Kenya. The objectives of the study were: to examine how climate has varied between 1990 and 2019 in Kitutu Chache South Constituency; establish farmers’ perception of the effects of climate variability on Free Range Indigenous Chicken in Kitutu Chache South; examine the relationship between climate variability and the occurrence of Newcastle disease as well as to assess the socio-economic costs of Newcastle disease on poultry farmers. Descriptive survey study design was selected and it included both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The research study targeted poultry farmers; thus, sampling size was determined to be 500 farmers and 10 Key informants from the County Departments. The research used simple random and purposive sampling methods. Primary data was collected from poultry farmers using questionnaires, and secondary data was collected from Kisii Meteorological Services from 1990-2019. The primary data was analyzed in STATA-14 and SPSS-20 using descriptive statistics, Spearman’s Correlation, and Linear regression models. Cronbach’s Alpha formula, weighted mean, and chi-square were used to identify farmers’ perceptions within six items. Secondary data was analyzed in R-Studio using the Mann-Kendall trend test with Sense slope estimators to determine trends in climatic variability. The results showed a significant increase in minimum and maximum temperatures at (p < 0.05); and a decreasing trend in the mean amount of rainfall. This study confirmed that poultry farmers from Kitutu Chache South were significantly aware of climate variability and its effects on chicken production (Ẍ2 = 68.17; df =5; p = 0.000) with Cronbach’s Alpha (α) of 0.712, which showed reliable consistency within the items. There was a significant and robust relationship between climatic variables and chicken death due to the Newcastle Disease virus (p < 0.001). It was determined that climate factors influence chicken productivity, and a slight change of climate variables could lead to an average loss of about KES.236.78 per chicken. The results further showed that poultry farmers are adapting strategic measures to mitigate the effects of climate change, such as vaccination, using the herbal medication, and consuming and selling chicken before infection. These adaptation strategies were found to be statistically increasing chicken productivity (p <0.05) with a marginal probability range of 1.4% to 27.3%. However, farmers are constrained by challenges such as inadequate funds, inadequate extension services, and erratic prediction of the seasonality of the Newcastle Disease outbreak. Therefore, from the study findings, the study recommends that the County and the National governments harmonize climate issues when drafting policies on Newcastle Disease.
Description
A Project Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Master of Environmental Science (Climate Change and Sustainability) in the School of Environmental Studies of Kenyatta University, June, 2022
Keywords
Impacts, Climate Variability, Outbreak, Spread, Newcastle Disease, Poultry Farming, Kisii County, Kenya