Mathematical Modelling Of Malaria Disease in Busia County, Kenya
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Date
2025-02
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Kenyatta University
Abstract
Malaria remains a leading global health challenge, causing millions of deaths
annually, primarily through the bite of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. In
Kenya, Busia County records the highest malaria prevalence at 37%, yet it has often
been excluded from mathematical modeling studies. Traditional SEIR models
commonly used in malaria research fail to capture the persistence of asymptomatic
Plasmodium parasites in individuals who have recovered from the disease. This
study introduces an enhanced SIRSp model that incorporates this asymptomatic
subpopulation to better understand malaria dynamics in Busia County. The model
assumes a constant infection rate influenced by both susceptible and infected
individuals, and its mathematical analysis yields reproduction numbers for humans
and mosquitoes. Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point indicates the
feasibility of eradicating malaria in Busia County under certain conditions.
Numerical simulations demonstrate that higher infection rates significantly amplify
the prevalence of malaria, whereas improving recovery rates reduces infections
among humans and mosquitoes while marginally increasing the pool of susceptible
individuals. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of malaria
transmission and emphasize the importance of tailored interventions for effective
disease management in endemic regions.
Description
Project Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Master of Science (Applied Mathematics) in the School of Pure and Applied Sciences of Kenyatta University February, 2025
Supervisor:
1.Mary Opondo