Impact of 1.5 oC and 2 oC global warming scenarios on malaria transmission in East Africa [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations]
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Date
2020
Authors
Ogega, Obed Matundura
Alobo, Moses
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AAS Open Research
Abstract
Background: Malaria remains a global challenge with approximately
228 million cases and 405,000 malaria-related deaths reported in 2018
alone; 93% of which were in sub-Saharan Africa. Aware of the critical
role than environmental factors play in malaria transmission, this
study aimed at assessing the relationship between precipitation,
temperature, and clinical malaria cases in E. Africa and how the
relationship may change under 1.5 oC and 2.0 oC global warming
levels (hereinafter GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively).
Methods: A correlation analysis was done to establish the current
relationship between annual precipitation, mean temperature, and
clinical malaria cases. Differences between annual precipitation and
mean temperature value projections for periods 2008-2037 and 2023-
2052 (corresponding to GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively), relative to
the control period (1977-2005), were computed to determine how
malaria transmission may change under the two global warming
scenarios.
Results: A predominantly positive/negative correlation between
clinical malaria cases and temperature/precipitation was observed.
Relative to the control period, no major significant changes in
precipitation were shown in both warming scenarios. However, an
increase in temperature of between 0.5 oC and 1.5 oC and 1.0 oC to 2.0
oC under GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively, was recorded. Hence,
more areas in E. Africa are likely to be exposed to temperature
thresholds favourable for increased malaria vector abundance and,
hence, potentially intensify malaria transmission in the region.
Conclusions: GWL1.5 and GWL2.0 scenarios are likely to intensify
malaria transmission in E. Africa. Ongoing interventions should,
therefore, be intensified to sustain the gains made towards malaria
elimination in E. Africa in a warming climate.
Description
A research article published in AAS Open Research
Keywords
SR1.5, CORDEX, malaria, RCP 8.5, global warming, mosquito vectors
Citation
Ogega OM and Alobo M. Impact of 1.5 oC and 2 oC global warming scenarios on malaria transmission in East Africa [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] AAS Open Research 2020, 3:22 https://doi.org/10.12688/aasopenres.13074.1