Assessing the Implications of Climate Change Policies on Agricultural Growth in Kenya
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Date
2025-06
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Kenyatta University
Abstract
In Kenya, the agricultural industry accounts for 33% of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) of the nation. Furthermore, agriculture provides many rural populations in Kenya
with a significant source of employment as well as a means of subsistence. Going
forward, the agriculture industry will remain important for economic gains as well as
sustenance, such as crop production, agro-pastoral farming, and pastoral farming
systems. However, the quantity and quality of crops and livestock subsectors have been
significantly impacted by local weather variables, rendering agricultural outputs
especially vulnerable to a range of detrimental effects from climate change. This study
examined the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity, identifies policy
gaps, and proposes actionable solutions. It aimed to determine the effects of climate
change on agricultural productivity, identify existing policy gaps regarding climate
adaptation strategies, and propose viable public policy options to enhance the
agricultural sector's contributions to the economy. Using a mixed-methods approach, we
analyze temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2020) from the World Bank’s
Climate Change Knowledge Portal and employ regression analysis to quantify climate agriculture relationships. Results reveal a significant temperature increase
(0.32°C/decade, p < 0.05) and erratic rainfall, negatively affecting crop yields. Findings
suggest that rising temperatures negatively impact agricultural productivity due to
increased evapotranspiration and diminished soil moisture. Additionally, while some
precipitation trends show slight increases, a consistent pattern of declining rainfall
threatens water resources essential for agriculture. Despite the presence of policies such
as the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and the Agriculture Sector
Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTGS), critical gaps in policy implementation
and effectiveness hinder progress. Identified constraints include inadequate funding,
insufficient integration of local knowledge, and the lack of gender-responsive initiatives.
In response to these challenges, the study proposes several policy options aimed at
enhancing climate resilience in the agricultural sector. Policy gaps include inadequate
funding, limited smallholder engagement, and gender-insensitive approaches.
Recommendations include scaling Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), investing in
resilient infrastructure, and enhancing research. The study provides empirical evidence to
guide policymakers in fostering climate-resilient agricultural growth. These strategies are
designed to enable farmers to effectively adjust to climate variability while reaffirming
the sector's contribution to Kenya's agricultural growth. In general, the project's findings
highlight the need for focused adaptation strategies to lessen the negative impacts of
climate change on agriculture, which is essential for Kenya's food security and economic
stability.
Description
A Research Project Submitted to the School of Law, Arts and Social Sciences in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Award of the Masters Degree of Arts (Public Policy and Adminstration) of Kenyatta University June, 2025
Supervisor:
1. Gabriel Mwenjeri