Effects of Climate Variability on Pastoral Livelihoods in Marigat District, Baringo County, Kenya
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Date
2014-03-05
Authors
Lelenguyah, Geoffrey Lenyayon
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Abstract
The expected global temperature increase, more intense rainfall and more frequent
droughts will have devastating effects on pastoral livelihoods. The economy of the
affected areas also dwindle in the event of these calamities considering that droughts and
diseases resulting from floods affect the health of livestock which is the major source of
livelihood for the pastoralists. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of
climate variability and the resulting vector-borne diseases on pastoral livelihoods from
1971 to 2010 in Marigat district, Baringo County. The study hypothesized that there is
no relationship between rainfall patterns and number of cases of selected vector-borne
diseases over the study period. The study adopted both descriptive and explanatory
research design while data sampling involved stratified random sampling procedure
(Stratum 1 being Marigat division and stratum 2 being Mukutani division). This study
utilized household structured questionnaires administered through pure random
sampling with 136 households participating in the study, institutional questionnaires as
well as collection of secondary data from various sources as methods of data collection.
A number of bivariate comparisons of variables related to pastoral livelihoods were
done. These includes t-test to compare means of variable on pastoralists demographic
such as age between the two strata, ANOVA analysis to compare for significant
differences in the cases of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) disease between the four sublocations,
correlation analysis to test the relationship between rainfall amounts with
number of cases of vector-borne diseases, and Chi-square test (X2) to test cross-tabulated
data on variables such as perception of pastoralists on trends of climatic variables and
socio-economic variables between the 2 strata. The Chi-square test was used to assess
for homogeneity or similarity on categorical response variables between the study strata.
The correlation results of this study indicated that apart from Heartwater (p=-0.403,
sig=O.O12 and N=38), other veterinary diseases had no relationship with the rainfall
amount {Trypanosomiasis (p=-0.224, sig=0.189 and N=36), Babesiosis (p=-0.124,
sig=0.457 and N=38), Anaplasmosis (p=-0.156, sig=0.351 and N=38) and East Coast
Fever (p=-0.224, sig=0.176 and N=38)}. However, graphical plots depict the existence
of relationships with disease cases either increasing or decreasing in frequency with a
corresponding increase or decrease in rainfall amount. Chi-square results showed a
strong statistically significant difference between the responses in strata 1 and 2 on the
perceived trend of rainfall and floods towards the future (rainfall: X2= 41.230, df= 3, p=
0.000 and floods: X2= 24.903, df= 3, p= 0.000). Also, there was no statistically
significant difference between the perception of the respondents in Strata 1 and 2 on the
trend of tsetse flies (X2= 0.115, df= 3, p= 0.990) and Stomoxys (l= 6.677. df= 3, p=
0.83) while significant difference were observed on the trend of Tabanids (X2= 20.240,
df= 3, p= 0.000) , Culicoides (X2= 23.863, df=3, p= 0.000) and Sand flies (l= 15.429,
df= 3, p= 0.001). Increase in disease cases could be attributed to climate variability. The
study recommends the need to put in place contingency measures for reccurrence of
diseases, floods and droughts and strengthening local institutions to be able to deal with
climatic disasters resulting from climate variability and change. Regular monitoring of
weather, vectors and diseases are also recommended.
Description
Department of Environmental Education, 2013