Determinants of Agricultural Production in Kenya under Climate Change
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Date
2017
Authors
Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi N.
Shisanya, Chris A.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Open Access Library
Abstract
Climate change has been described as the most significant environmental
threat of the 21st century with vast impact mostly on agriculture, altering food
production processes. As an important sector in the Kenyan economy, agriculture
continues to dominate other sectors despite its declining contribution
to real GDP. Given that the performance of the agricultural sector is determined
by a large number of factors, the need to articulate this study has become
imperative in view of the climate phenomenon. Therefore, the study
examined the determinants of agricultural production in Kenya under climate
change with specific interests in assessing the trend of climate variables and
growth rate of agricultural production within 1970-2012 periods; estimating
factors influencing agricultural production and deducing policy implications
from the findings. Data used were secondary and include value of agricultural
production, livestock, machines, fertilizer, agricultural land, labour, annual
precipitation and temperature over the study period. These were obtained
from databases hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT),
the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Data
analysis was done using trend analysis, log quadratic trend equation and multiple
regression model. The trend results show that precipitation pattern
traced out high amplitude decadal variability with the forecast showing off a
slightly upward trend. In temperature, the inter-annual variability observed
was wide with a forecast of a slight increase up to 2020. In terms of growth
analysis, the log quadratic equation indicates that agricultural production
posted a compound growth rate of 3.252% during the period while production
was determined by the quantum of labour, livestock, agricultural land, precipitation
and its squared term. The implication is that precipitation both on
the short and long run affected agricultural production. It is recommended
that ecosystem based and technologically driven adaptation measures be taken
to address climate change effects on agricultural production.
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Agricultural Production, Climate Change, Kenya
Citation
Nwachukwu, I.N. and Shisanya, C.A. (2017) Determinants of Agricultural Production in Kenya under Climate Change. Open Access Library Journal , 4: e3583. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1103583