Electoral Process and National Security in the Informal Settlements of Nairobi City County, Kenya from 2007-2022
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Date
2025-12
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Kenyatta University
Abstract
One tool that governments utilize to affect income distribution and enhance household wellbeing is public
expenditure. The United Nations emphasized in 2005 that governments would need to increase
public spending in the areas of agriculture, health, infrastructure, and education if the Millennium
Development Goal targets were to be realized. This was stressed even more in 2015 under the
United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Between 2006 and 2022, public spending
on health, infrastructure, agriculture, and education grew by almost 25 per cent of total national spending
in Kenya. The Constitutional mandate that allocates 15 per cent of national revenue to county governments
and one-half percent to marginalized areas has reinforced agenda. Income inequality has remained high at
an average Gini coefficient of 0.386 since 2015/16. In 2021, the Gini coefficient was 0.389. Compared to
the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal of eradicating poverty, the projected number of impoverished
individuals in 2021 was 38.6 per cent, in the field of education, the enrollment rates for primary and
secondary schools were 47.8 per cent and 88.4 per cent, respectively, in 2015, falling short of the
Sustainable Development Goal objective of 100 per cent target. In the health sector despite the Sustainable
Development Goals' aim of fewer than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030, the maternal mortality rate
remained high in 2022, with 41 deaths per 1,000 live births. Kenya will not be able to meet the
Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, which include poverty eradication, healthy living and
equitable distribution of income within the nation, if these trends continue. An increase in public
expenditure on health and education without corresponding effects on household welfare and income
inequalities has raised concerns among policymakers. Thus, the goal of the study was to ascertain how
public spending affects household welfare in Kenya, as well as how it varies depending on the region's
economic bloc. It also aimed to assess the effect of public spending on income distribution in Kenya. The
study used a non-experimental research approach using data from the Basic Report on Well-Being, which
is an extract from the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey for the 2015–16 year. Public expenditure
data at the county levels covering all the 47 counties for the period 2014 to 2016 were used in the analysis,
taking the county as the unit of study. The study used Ordinary Least Squares method in analyzing
objectives one and three while Seemingly Unrelated Regression technique was used to estimate
consumption expenditure share equations. The study estimated Ordinary Least Squares and found empirical
support that a 1 per cent increase in government spending on agriculture would enhance household welfare
by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively, with regard to food and non-food household consumption. In
addition, the study found that household welfare would improve by 0.18 per cent in terms of aggregate
household consumption when the government increases public expenditure on agriculture by one percent.
However, the study established that public spending on education had a positive impact on household
welfare in terms of food and total household spending, whereas public spending on health per capita only
had a positive impact on household spending on nonfood items. A 1 per cent rise in government expenditure
on agriculture per capita lowers income inequality in the first and second quintiles by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage
points, respectively, according to the study's estimation of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression model. This
implies that governmental expenditure on agriculture per capita has a favorable effect on income
distribution by aiding the impoverished. The study further found that income distribution in the lowest
quintiles would improve by 0.2 percentage points with a 1 per cent increase in public spending on
infrastructure per capita. On the other hand, the study did not find any empirical evidence that public
expenditure on health per capita have an effect on income distribution in all the income groups. Regionally,
according to the study, increased public funding for infrastructure, health care, and agriculture is necessary
for the Coast, South Eastern Kenya, Frontier Counties Development Council, Mount Kenya, and Aberdare
economic blocs to achieve better welfare status for their population. The study concluded that both the
national and county governments should increase funding for infrastructure, education, and agriculture in
order for the government to improve household welfare status and income distribution among Kenyan
citizens, as these specific expenditures are necessary.
Description
A Thesis Summited to the School of Law, Arts and Social Science in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Security Studies at Kenyatta University. December, 2025
Supervisors
Lazarus Ngari
Evans O. Odhiambo