Climate variability and livelihood vulnerability assessment of the Maasai pastoralists in Amboseli Ecosystem, Kajiado County, Kenya
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Date
2025-04
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Kenyatta University
Abstract
Fragile ecosystems in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya are highly vulnerable to climate variability, yet they hold most of the nation’s livestock and wildlife. The pastoral Maasai community living in Amboseli Ecosystem in Kajiado County provides a good case study of semi-arid regions in Kenya experiencing serious challenges stemming from climate variability and its adverse effects on their livelihood. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between climate variability and livelihood vulnerability among the Maasai pastoralists in the Amboseli Ecosystem. The specific objectives were to: assess trends in key climate variability indicators during the period 1988-2018, evaluate the effects of climate variability on pasture and water availability, determine the effect of climate variability on livelihoods, and to determine the adaptation strategies adopted by different households to minimize vulnerability to the effects of climate variability and change. The study used explanatory research design which focused on descriptive and correlational approaches. This study targeted a population of 47, 058 residents from which a sample of 384 household heads was selected. Cluster and convenient sampling were used for quantitative and qualitative data respectively. A questionnaire with open and closed ended questions and with Likert scale format was used to collect quantitative data while interview schedules were used for qualitative data. In addition, secondary data was collected from different sources but primarily from Kenya Meteorological Department repositories. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyze qualitative data while quantitative data was analyzed using inferential statistics. One-way ANOVA, regression beta parameters and t-statistic were used to assess significance of correlation between adaptation variables. Normalized-Difference-Vegetation-Index technique was used to make content analysis of pasture and water distribution. Mann Kendall method in XLSTAT program was employed to test for significance of trend in temperature and rainfall data over three decades. Vulnerability assessments were conducted at household level. Climate variability analysis revealed an increasing temperature trend with a p-value of 0.36 and a decreasing trend in precipitation with a p-value of 0.02. It also showed that pasture and water availability increased with increasing rainfall trend and vice versa. Vegetation greenness and water availability reduced as temperature increased resulting due to enhanced evapotranspiration and water evaporation respectively. These changes affected both livestock and crop production. Vulnerability of livelihoods was found to have a direct relationship with availability of pasture and water. Milk production, animal health and reproduction were the main climate-related factors influencing household vulnerability. The common adaptation strategies adopted were herd reduction, mixed livestock, mixed farming, water harvesting and small businesses These strategies reduced vulnerability of households but are not advancing fast enough to offset the adverse effects of climate variability. It is therefore imperative to build capacity of households and help them to diversify their sources of livelihood and adapt to changing climate. Going forwards, state could empower households and build resilience of the community against unpredictable climatic changes. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the existing adaptation strategies and determine priority areas of capacity building at household, community and county government levels. Harmonious co-existence between residents and wildlife is critical since wildlife sustains revenue streams from ecological and cultural tourism, both of which can significantly enhance community resilience against inevitable climate variability and change
Description
A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Education in the School of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences of Kenyatta University, April 2025
SUPERVISORS:
Dr. Cecilia M. Gichuki
Dr. Ezekiel Ndunda