Trend Analysis in Sugarcane Growth in Mumias Sugar Belt, Western Kenya; for the Period 1985-2015
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Date
2021
Authors
Khaemba, Protas Fwamba
Muiruri, Philomena W.
Kibutu, Thomas N.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
IJRCS
Abstract
The study was carried out to examine trends in
the output and acreage in the Mumias Sugar belt from the
period 1985-2015. We used secondary data collected from
Mumais Sugar Company records for the period 1985-2015
for the study. The trend analysis of sugarcane production in
the Mumias Sugar Belt is important, where sugarcane is the
major cash crop and absorbs a majority of the agrarian
population in the region. The study used the expert modeler,
an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), to
predict the output. The forecast period was 2016 through
March 2021 and employed two scenarios: I) forecast with +2
harvesting age predictor modification and ii) forecast with
+10 hectares predictor modification. The predicted value
showed good agreement with the observed values from the
series plot, indicating that the model has a good predictive
ability. The application of the model revealed that the results
in the prediction tables show that, in each of the six forecasted
quarters, increasing the harvesting age by two months is
expected to generate about 4.52 more tons of yields per
hectare than increasing area harvested by 10 hectares that
would decrease the yield by 0.01 tons per hectare. The study recommends research and development on
sugarcane varieties that mature early, making sugarcane-based Agri- enterprises and sustainable. In addition,
Mumias Sugar Company should seek profitable techniques to increase the recovery per cent, and farmers seek
good management practices to increase the efficiency of the sugarcane farms in the sugar belt.
Description
Article
Keywords
Sugarcane production, Sugar belt, Mumais, Trend Analysis, Sugarcane growth
Citation
Khaemba, P. F., Muiruri, P. W., & Kibutu, T. N. (2021). Trend Analysis in Sugarcane Growth in Mumias Sugar Belt, Western Kenya; for the Period 1985-2015. Interdisciplinary Journal of Rural and Community Studies, 3(1), 31-40.