Crime Forecasting and Mitigation in Selected Slum Areas in Mombasa City County, Kenya

Abstract

This study examines crime forecasting and mitigation strategies in Mombasa slum areas. This study examined the types and causes of crime in slum areas within Mombasa County and their contributions to crime forecasting. It also analyzed crime victimization levels within different demographic characteristics of Mombasa slum residences, investigated crime mitigation strategies currently employed in Mombasa's slum areas and their effectiveness in crime prevention, and examined the prevalence and projection of crime in slum settings within Mombasa City. The study highlighted the gaps and subsequent amendments to suit a need-based approach to crime prevention. The study reviewed past research done by various authors regarding crime dynamics in a slum setting. This study applied crime forecasting theories to predict crime occurrences in slum settings and further demonstrated the correlation between variables under investigation in the conceptual framework. Chaos theory, social networking theory, and routine theory were used to guide this study in relevance to the dynamics of crimes in slums. A cross-sectional survey method was preferred which adopted both qualitative and quantitative approaches in data collection. The unit of analysis was crime forecasting in slum areas, with the researcher using police officers as the unit of observation. The study area comprised of three special slum areas in the County of Mombasa. The sampling design was used to target 2600 subjects comprising of slum dwellers and Police officers. From a population of 2600, a sample of 286 respondents were selected. The study utilized questionnaires for data collection. The Quantitative data collected was analysed and presented in terms of percentages and frequencies using tables and charts. Content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. The findings revealed that possession and drug trafficking (28.6%), drug abuse (13.2%), pickpocketing (12.1%), mugging (10%) and robbery (10%) were the most common types of crime in the slum areas. High levels of unemployment (61.2%), drug abuse (22.7%), poverty (13%) and peer pressure were cited as the major causes of crime in the slum areas. On crime victimization, the majority of the respondents (90.3%) had fallen victims to criminals while only (9.7%) had never been victims. The study established that, police patrols (50.0%), village security committees (22.2%) and vigilante groups were the strategies employed by the police officers and community members to mitigate crime in the slum areas. On seasonality of crime, the study established that crime was committed in the early mornings (21.1%) and late-night (41.6%). The study found that investigation of crime hotspots enabled police officers to identify high-crime regions, types of crime being committed, and the ideal approach to act in preventing their occurrence. The study concluded that; most of the slum residents who were young or poor engaged in criminal activities as a source of livelihood. The proliferation of illicit brewing and consumption was also cited as another reason for high crime rates in the slum areas. Crimes such as robbery with violence and murder, which attract capital punishment, were cited as rampant in the slum areas. The study recommended that similar researches could be undertaken in other counties.