Numerical simulation of rainfall and temperature over Kenya using Weather Research and Forecasting-Environmental Modelling System (WRF-EMS)
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Date
2016-06
Authors
Sagero, Philip O.
Shisanya, C.A.
Ongoma, Victor
Shilenje, Zablon W.
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Abstract
This paper focuses on one of the high resolution models used for weather forecasting at Kenya Meteorological
Department (KMD). It reviews the skill and accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) - Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model, in simulating weather over Kenya. The study period
was March to May 2011, during the rainy season over Kenya. The model output was compared with
the observed data from 27 synoptic stations spread over the study area, to determine the performance
of the model in terms of its skill and accuracy in forecasting. The spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature
showed that the WRF model was capable of reproducing the observed general pattern especially
for temperature. The model has skill in forecasting both rainfall and temperature over the study
area. However, the model may underestimate rainfall of more than 10 mm/day and displace its location
and overestimate rainfall of less than 1 mm/day. Therefore, during the period of enhanced rainfall
especially in the month of April and part of May the model forecast needs to be complemented by other
models or forecasting methods before giving a forecast. There is need to improve its performance
over the domain through review of the parameterization of small scale physical processes and more observed
data need to be simulated into the model.
Keywords: rainfall, temperature, weather forecasting, WRF, Kenya
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Rainfall, Temperature, Weather forecasting, WRF, Kenya
Citation
Geographica Pannonica, Vol. 20:2, pg. 51-61, June 2016