Department of Spatial and Environmental Planning, Kenyatta University

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    Demographic change and rural land use dynamics in Rongo, Migori County, Kenya
    (Kenyatta University, 2026-09) Mwai , Fredrick Nicholas
    Demographic change in most instances is considered the principal factor of human impact on land use change. The drivers of these changes, however, are dependent on the location, timeframe, and institutional design of the human environment prompting the changes to appear spontaneously or gradually. Agriculture for a long time has been the main development activity on most lands in Rongo Sub-County. However, in the last decade the area has been experiencing diverse development on its land posing numerous challenges such as uncontrolled development. It is in this view that this study analyzed the rural land use change trends in Rongo Sub-County between 2002 and 2022, examined the impact of population size on land use trends, and evaluated the influence of population socioeconomic status on trends in rural land use change in Rongo SubCounty. The Population and Environment Theory informed the conceptual framework and guided the study. The study site was purposively selected based on its rapid growth and visible land use transitions. A descriptive research design was adopted, allowing the use of both qualitative and quantitative data from primary sources including household survey questionnaires, field observation, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and satellite imagery. Cluster random sampling was employed by dividing the population into locations where the required 384 households were randomly selected, while purposive sampling targeted key informants. Satellite images were downloaded from the United States Geographical Survey website and classified for the time interval between 2002 and 2022. The study adopted supervised classification where the area of interest was extracted. A review of relevant literature was undertaken to acquire secondary data. Arc Map 10.4.1 was used to analyze remotely sensed data, SPSS was employed for quantitative analysis, while qualitative data was analyzed thematically. Findings which were presented in tables and charts show that the study area’s population has increased by 45.5% over the study period (2002-2022) and that there is an increased number of households. Additionally, land area under rural agriculture extended constantly into forest lands between 2002 and 2022. The settlement area equally extended continuously into agricultural lands and forest lands, and wetland areas experienced minimal change. Majority with extra sources of income (45%) venture into other businesses thereby influencing the development of land. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for the majority (43%) thus impacting the rate of demand for farmland. The study concludes that population size influences trends in land use change due to its impact on household number and consumption rate. Consequently, there is an expansion of farmlands for the production of food and a continuous increase of the area under settlements. Additionally, education attainment and access to extra sources of income impact the trend in rural land use change due to the efforts of the rural population towards the enhancement of livelihood. The trend in land use change in Rongo Sub-County involves the modification of forest land to farmlands and settlements. The study recommends training on sustainable approaches to maximizing farm yield, development, and implementation of policies that can influence the aspects associated with rural land use change transition tendencies.