Impacts of climate change, household vulnerability and adaptation strategies among the Gabbra pastoralists in Marsabit County, Kenya
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Date
2025-03
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Kenyatta University
Abstract
The livelihoods of pastoralist communities in Kenya are largely climate sensitive due to their dependence on natural resources. Ecological and socioeconomic conditions of rangeland areas occupied by pastoral communities most probably contribute to an increase in their vulnerability due to the impacts brought about by climate change. Few studies have looked into this particular aspect in relation to the northern rangelands. This study was carried out in Marsabit County of Kenya with overall objective of assessing Gabbra pastoralists' perceptions, impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation strategies against climate change. Specifically, the study sought to:- assess the extent of climate change by analyzing trends in temperature and precipitation; evaluate the local community perceptionandimpactsof thechangingclimate;identify theadaptation strategiesadopted by Gabbracommunity; anddeterminethe vulnerabilityof Gabbracommunity households to climate change. The study adopted a mixed research design. Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator to analyze monthly, seasonal and annual temperature and precipitationtrendsfor MarsabitCountyfrom1990to2022.Datawasalsocollectedfrom 398 randomly selected pastoralists from the Gabbra community using household interviews, observations, and discussions including a Likert-scale to assess Gabbra pastoralists perceptions on climate change, impacts and adaptations they undertake. The study also assessed the livelihood vulnerability of Gabbra pastoralists who depend on livestock, crops and natural resources for their livelihood. The degree of livelihood vulnerability between the different sub-counties, livelihood vulnerability index was used. Results revealed decreasing, but non-significant, trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation. When the monthly, seasonal and annual data for maximum and minimum temperature was evaluated, the results revealed an upward and statistically significant (p≤0.05) trend. The results further showed that Gabbra pastoralists have been perceiving climate through disruptions of their normal socio-economic activities and lifestyles, largely occasioned by climatic parameters, especially rainfall. Climate impacts were largely attributed to rainfall and temperature variations. Gabbra pastoralists have adaptation strategies that largely focus on livestock, crop and soil management. Composite method results, showed high vulnerability to climate change among the Gabbra. Similar results were obtained using livelihood vulnerability indexintergovernmental panel on climate change indicating that the community has low adaptive capacity, while highly sensitive and exposed to the shocks of climate change. MultivariateProbitregressionmodelshowedthatgender,age,education,monthlyincome, household size, membership to social group, increasing temperature, unpredictable rainfall patterns, increased drought frequency, assistance from government, assistance from relatives, access to extension services, access to credit services, water availability, pasture availability, and own large herd of livestock as statistically significant (p≤0.05) determinants in choosing adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. The study concludes that rainfall has been progressively decreasing while temperatures have gradually risen from 1990 to 2022. Gabbra pastoralists have perceived climate change through climatic variations experienced and consequential disruptions of socioeconomic activities and livelihoods. The community has adopted various strategies to address impacts of climate change that involve aspects of livestock, crop and soil management. Further, they were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change. The study recommends development of nature-based interventions such as ecosystems restoration, management of biodiversity, water and soils, which deliberately incorporates indigenous knowledge. Climate adaptation strategies that minimize households’ degree of sensitivity and enhance their adaptive capacity should be promoted. In adaptation there is a need to seekincreasedadoptionofclimate-smarttechnologiesforusebytheGabbracommunity
Description
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of doctor of philosophy (climate change and sustainable development) in the School of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences of Kenyatta University, March 2025
Dr.John Muriuki
Dr.Ezekiel Ndunda