Towards Understanding Crime Dynamics in a Heterogeneous Environment: A Mathematical Approach

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dc.contributor.authorWhite, Jane K. A.
dc.contributor.authorCampillo-Funollet, Eduard
dc.contributor.authorNyabadza, Farai
dc.contributor.authorCusseddu, Davide
dc.contributor.authorKasumo, Christian
dc.contributor.authorImbusi, Nancy Matendechere
dc.contributor.authorJuma, Victor Ogesa
dc.contributor.authorMeir, A. J.
dc.contributor.authorMarijani, Theresia
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-09T09:46:59Z
dc.date.available2021-06-09T09:46:59Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionAn Article Published in Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematicsen_US
dc.description.abstractCrime data provides information on the nature and location of the crime but, in general, does not include information on the number of criminals operating in a region. By contrast, many approaches to crime reduction necessarily involve working with criminals or individuals at risk of engaging in criminal activity and so the dynamics of the criminal population is important. With this in mind, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model which combines the number of crimes and number of criminals to create a dynamical system. Analysis of the model highlights a threshold for criminal efficiency, below which criminal numbers will settle to an equilibrium level that can be exploited to reduce crime through prevention. This efficiency measure arises from the initiation of new criminals in response to observation of criminal activity; other initiation routes - via opportunism or peer pressure - do not exhibit such thresholds although they do impact on the level of criminal activity observed. We used data from Cape Town, South Africa, to obtain parameter estimates and predicted that the number of criminals in the region is tending towards an equilibrium point but in a heterogeneous manner - a drop in the number of criminals from low crime neighbourhoods is being offset by an increase from high crime neighbourhoods.en_US
dc.identifier.citationK. A. Jane White, Eduard Campillo-Funollet, Farai Nyabadza, Davide Cusseddu, Christian Kasumo, Nancy Matendechere Imbusi, Victor Ogesa Juma, A. J. Meir & Theresia Marijani (2021): Towards understanding crime dynamics in a heterogeneous environment: A mathematical approach, Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematics, DOI: 10.1080/09720502.2020.1860292en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://ir-library.ku.ac.ke/handle/123456789/22305
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisen_US
dc.subjectMathematical modelen_US
dc.subjectCriminal activity and number of criminalsen_US
dc.subjectCriminal efficiencyen_US
dc.subjectCape Townen_US
dc.subjectSouth Africaen_US
dc.titleTowards Understanding Crime Dynamics in a Heterogeneous Environment: A Mathematical Approachen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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