Mathematical Modelling of Tuberculosis-Covid-19 Co-Infection
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Date
2024-07
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Publisher
Kenyatta University
Abstract
It was noted that the spread of tuberculosis reduced significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. This reduction has been associated with the preventive measures placed to combat the spread of COVID-19. Research showed a strong correlation between the spread of COVID-19 and the spread of tuberculosis in any population. It is worth noting that tuberculosis and COVID 19 are among the leading most deadly communicable diseases in the world today. The correlation in their spread also leaves us to believe that the spread of one can enhance the spread of the other. Hence, we proposed a situation where a population was co-infected with both COVID-19 and tuberculosis. By employing the conservative laws, the mathematical model was
formulated, and the resulting model analysed both qualitatively and numerically. The equilibrium points of the model were obtained and the reproduction number calculated. The condition for stability of the co-infection at the equilibrium point was determined as R0<1. The non-negativity conditions for the solution were established. A numerical simulation was carried out for the model and the dynamics of the diseases studied as the parameters vary. It was found that the rate of contracting tuberculosis posessed a more significant impact on the possibility of coinfection than COVID-19 and the effects of migration from the tuberculosis sub-population were more significant than migration from COVID-19.
Description
A Project Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of The Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Masters of Science (Applied Mathematics) in the School of Pure and Applied Sciences of Kenyatta University, July 2024.
Supervisor
Isaac Chepkwony