Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic System in Kisumu County, Kenya
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Date
2025-06
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Kenyatta University
Abstract
This study investigated the diffusion of solar home systems in Kisumu East-Sub County, Kenya. The primary objectives of this study were to first identify the spatial patterns of solar home systems in Kisumu. Secondly the study sought to understand the socioeconomic factors driving the diffusion of solar home systems in Kisumu, and lastly the study sought to assess the potential of solar home systems for climate mitigation through greenhouse gas reduction. The study employed an empirical interventional design combined with geospatial tools. A cluster sampling procedure was employed. 384 households were sampled. The research identified statistically significant spatial clusters of solar home system diffusion patterns. These clusters exhibited a wave-like pattern radiating from population centres, but with a diminishing trend for the period 2016 to 2021.Using an ordinary least squares model, socioeconomic factors were analysed to understand the drivers of the spatial trends. For population density, the coefficient (-0.116) was negative but statistically insignificant (p-value = 0.531). This suggested that, on average, population density was not associated with a statistically significant change in solar home system diffusion. Regarding income, the coefficient (45.36) was positive and statistically significant at (p-value = 0.037). This indicated a positive relationship between income and solar home system diffusion. Regarding education, the coefficient (0.111) was positive but statistically insignificant at (p-value = 0.735). This suggested that, on average, an increase in education levels was not associated with a statistically significant increase in solar home system diffusion. Lastly, regarding electricity, the coefficient (0.013) was positive and statistically significant at (p-value = 0.000*). This indicated a positive relationship between electricity rates and solar home system diffusion. The study estimated that solar home system usage in Kenya had avoided 5.875 metric tons of CO2 emissions for the period 2016 to 2021, highlighting its potential for greenhouse gas reduction. Although solar home systems diffusion counts declined over time, socioeconomic factors, particularly income and electricity rates, emerged as stronger drivers of diffusion compared to population density and education level. Based on the findings the study suggests the recommendations that targeted interventions for promoting solar home system diffusion in suitable areas. Secondly the research suggests that policy makers could consider leveraging economic incentives for addressing factors related to electricity costs to encourage wider diffusion of solar home systems. Lastly the study recommends that further research is needed to implement a program for ongoing monitoring and evaluation of solar home systems impact.
Description
A Research Project Report Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the award of the Degree of Master of Environmental Studies (Climate Change and Sustainability) in the School of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Kenyatta University, June 2025.
supervisor
Paul Obade