Judgment under uncertainty; a probabilistic evaluation framework for decision-making about sanitation systems in low-income countries
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Date
2013
Authors
Malekpour, Shirin
Langeveld, Jeroen
Letema, Sammy
Clemens, François
Lier, Jules B. van
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective
decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic
framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this
framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in
practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of evaluations
will not be single point estimates; but there exists a range of possible outcomes. A first trial
application of this framework for evaluation of sanitation options in the Nyalenda settlement in Kisumu,
Kenya, showed how the range of values that an evaluation parameter may obtain in practice would
influence the evaluation outcomes. In addition, as the probabilistic evaluation requires various sitespecific
data, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each data set quality on
the evaluation outcomes. Based on that, data collection activities could be (re)directed, in a trade-off
between the required investments in those activities and the resolution of the decisions that are to be
made.
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Sanitation, Low-income country, Decision-making, Probabilistic evaluation, Uncertainty