Effects of Climate Variability on Water Resources and Livelihoods and State of Adaptive Capacity in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya.
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Date
2013-08-12
Authors
Recha, Wambongo C. S.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
This study adopted an integrated approach of vulnerability assessment to
understand
climate variability and its effects in
Tharaka District Kenya.
The
specific objectives of
the study were: (i) analyze the characteristics of rainfall variabil
ity; (ii)
a
ssess the effect
of climate variability on water availability; (iii)
d
etermine the perceived impact of climate
variability on livelihoods; (iv) Assess the conceptual understanding of climate variability
in relation to other socio
-
economic stress
ors and; (v) Assess the availability and use of
attributes and indicators of adaptive capacity. The study utilized four data sets: daily
rainfall data (1969
-
2007), household survey (N=326), interviews with practitioners (N=
24) and Focus Group Discussion (
N= 48). The study used cumulative departure index
and rainfall anomaly index to establish rainfall trends for the period on record; and two
sample
t
-
test to establish
the difference between
March
-
May (MAM) and October
-
December (OND). Percentage cumulative
mean was used to estimate mean dates of onset
and cessation and INSTAT in disaggregation of daily rainfall data into pentads to analyze
within
-
season characteristics. The study utilized X
2
to establish satisfaction levels of
distance to water points, socia
l amenities and rating of seasonal climate forecasts. Factor
analysis was used establish
the main
effect of climate variability
while
participatory risk
ranking and scoring
to yield the lead stressors.
In Tharaka, OND
and annual rainfall are
persistently b
elow nor
mal when compared to
MAM.
Rainfall has high inter
-
annual
variability with occasions of positive anomalies such 1997 for OND and negative
anomalies such 1984
for MAM.
MAM and OND had a
coefficient of variation
exceeding
0.3
although the
former was p
oorly distributed in April
. The average date
s of onset were
21
-
25
of March
and October
, while c
essation
dates were May 16
-
20 for
and January 6
-
10
for October
-
January season.
But onset dates showed high inter
-
annual variability than
cessation dates.
MAM and OND
seasons in
Lower Midlands
5
and
Lower Midlands 4
are
markedly different and therefore require
different cropping system
s
.
Although
58%
of
households engage in
more than three
livelihoods, income derived is very low. Results of
factor analysis
show
ed
livestock (25%) and water & forest products (12%)
as
the most
affected by climate variability. This perception was at variance with practitioners who
said crops were the most affected. Water scarcity (1.2) and lack of money (1.2) had the
highest sev
erity index, ahead of irregular rains
(1.7)
and drought
(1.5)
as stressors.
Awareness on the causes and impact of climate variability and the improved rating of
climate forecasts should be harnessed into an opportunity to reduce vulnerability.
Livelihood d
iversity, land availability, two growing seasons and cultivation of drought
tolerant crops are the indicators of adaptive capacity in Tharaka. Adaptation to climate
variability is hampered by lack of credit facilities, low literacy levels and limited use o
f
climate forecasts.
T
here were institutions in Tharaka supporting adaptation through seed
distribution, food relief,
irrigation and rainwater harvesting
.
It is recommended that
farmers in
IL5
and
IL6
tap the full potential of MAM season and stakeholders
a
ddress
socio
-
economic concerns as a first step to strengthen adaptation
.
Future studies should
quantify
drought
episodes
and analyze the implications of rainfall variability on major
crop yields in Tharaka.