Optimizing Vaccination Strategies to Reduce Conjunctivitis Transmission: Mathematical Modeling Insights from Kenya
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Date
2024-05
Authors
Muli, Charles Ndambuki
Kimulu, Ancent Makau
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
IRJMETS
Abstract
Conjunctivitis is a widespread condition with significant public health implications, but its potential impact on
transmission patterns due to vaccination programs, particularly in Kenya, remains underexplored. The main
aims of this study to investigate the role of vaccination in preventing conjunctivitis spread and related
complications. A deterministic mathematical model was developed in an attempt to simulate conjunctivitis
incidence, considering factors like population size, contact rates, and vaccination efficacy. The basic
reproduction number (R₀) was calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Stability analysis of the
disease-free equilibrium (DFE) showed stability will occur when R₀ < 1 and instability when R₀ > 1. Numerical
computations using the MATLAB ode45 solver indicated that increased vaccination campaigns reduce the
infected population. This implies that vaccination strengthens the immune response against the infection,
lowering the risk of severe outcomes like vision loss. This study is vital for understanding the potential impact
of effective vaccination programs on conjunctivitis transmission in Kenya, aiding policy-makers and public
health practitioners in developing effective disease control measures.
Description
Article
Keywords
Conjunctivitis, Mathematical Modeling, Next Generation Matrix, Transmission Dynamics, Vaccination Campaigns
Citation
Muli, C. N., & Kimulu, A. M. OPTIMIZING VACCINATION STRATEGIES TO REDUCE CONJUNCTIVITIS TRANSMISSION: MATHEMATICAL MODELING INSIGHTS FROM KENYA.