Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Variability and Its Implications for Malaria Risk in Baringo, Kenya
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Date
2018
Authors
Amadi, Jacinter A
Olago, Daniel O
Ong’amo, George O
Oriaso, Silas O
Nanyingi, Mark
Nyamongo, Isaac K
Estambale, Benson B. A
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA
Abstract
The global increase in vector borne diseases has been linked to climate change. Seasonal
vegetation changes are known to influence disease vector population. However, the relationship is more theoretical than quantitatively defined. There is a growing demand for
understanding and prediction of climate sensitive vector borne disease risks especially in
regions where meteorological data are lacking. This study aimed at analyzing and quantitatively assessing the seasonal and year-to-year association between climatic factors (rainfall
and temperature) and vegetation cover, and its implications for malaria risks in Baringo
County, Kenya. Remotely sensed temperature, rainfall, and vegetation data for the period
2004–2015 were used. Poisson regression was used to model the association between
malaria cases and climatic and environmental factors for the period 2009–2012, this being
the period for which all datasets overlapped. A strong positive relationship was observed
between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and monthly total precipitation.
There was a strong negative relationship between NDVI and minimum temperature. The
total monthly rainfall (between 94 -181mm), average monthly minimum temperatures
(between 16–21˚C) and mean monthly NDVI values lower than 0.35 were significantly associated with malaria incidence rates. Results suggests that a combination of climatic and vegetation greenness thresholds need to be met for malaria incidence to be significantly
increased in the county. Planning for malaria control can therefore be enhanced by incorporating these factors in malaria risk mapping.
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Citation
Amadi, J. A., Olago, D. O., Ong’amo, G. O., Oriaso, S. O., Nanyingi, M., Nyamongo, I. K., & Estambale, B. B. (2018). Sensitivity of vegetation to climate variability and its implications for malaria risk in Baringo, Kenya. PLoS One, 13(7), e0199357.