Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections
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Date
2022-08-12
Authors
Ototo, Ednah N.
Ogutu, Joseph O.
Githeko, Andrew
Said, Mohammed Y.
Kamau, Lucy
Namanya, Didacus
Simiyu, Stella
Mutimba, Stephen
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Nature
Abstract
Background Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening
climate variability. A projected 1–3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by
modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for
projected climate scenarios spanning 2006–2100.
Methods Regression relationships are established between historical (1995–2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and
rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model,
VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an
ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).
Results Maximum temperatures in the long rainy (March–May) and dry (June–September) seasons will likely increase by
over 2.0 °C by 2070, relative to 1971–2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June–September) will likely
increase by over 1.5–3.0 °C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long
rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to
the 3–6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns
projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using
an ensemble of models for projections.
Conclusions The short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the
Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could
reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental
suitability for malaria transmission
Description
article
Keywords
Climate change, Malaria, Regionalized climate projections
Citation
Ototo, E.N., Ogutu, J.O., Githeko, A. et al. Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections. Acta Parasit. 67, 1535–1563 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11686-022-00588-4