Analysis of Budget Imbalance Dynamics in Kenya

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dc.contributor.authorOguso, Alex
dc.contributor.authorMwega, Francis M.
dc.contributor.authorWawire, Nelson H.
dc.contributor.authorSamanta, Purna
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-26T08:34:49Z
dc.date.available2022-10-26T08:34:49Z
dc.date.issued2018-11-24
dc.descriptionA Research Article in the Journal of Economics and Public Financeen_US
dc.description.abstractKenya needs substantial and sustained fiscal consolidation to create fiscal space for financing the government’s election pledges, the Vision 2030 development projects, and sustainable development goals. However, the government has found it hard to sustain its fiscal consolidation attempts. This study investigates the fiscal consolidation constraints that act through the budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya using the Olivera-Tanzi effect approach. The study covers the period 2000-2015 using time series data and employs three Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) error correction models in the analysis. The study showed that a rise in the general price levels in the economy, adjustment of minimum wages, rise in perceived levels of corruption in the public sector and the political budget cycles (occurrence of a general election) worsen the budget imbalances (deficits) thus constrain fiscal consolidation efforts in Kenya. The study also demonstrated that budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya could partly be explained by the Olivera-Tanzi proposition. The study recommends measures to reduce the fiscal imbalance gap in Kenya, which include controlling both supply and demand side inflationary pressure and dealing with rent seeking behavior in the public sectoren_US
dc.identifier.citationOguso, A., Mwega, F., Wawire, N., & Samanta, P. (2018). Analysis of budget imbalance dynamics in Kenya. Journal of Economics and Public Finance, 4(4).en_US
dc.identifier.issn2377-1038
dc.identifier.issn2377-1046
dc.identifier.urihttp://ir-library.ku.ac.ke/handle/123456789/24353
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherJournal of Economics and Public Financeen_US
dc.subjectBudget imbalance dynamicsen_US
dc.subjectFiscal consolidationen_US
dc.subjectGovernment expenditureen_US
dc.subjectGovernment revenueen_US
dc.subjectOlivera-Tanzi propositionen_US
dc.titleAnalysis of Budget Imbalance Dynamics in Kenyaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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