Climate Variability and Malaria Prevalence among Children in Elgeyo Marakwet West Sub County, Kenya
Loading...
Date
2025-11
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Kenyatta University
Abstract
Malaria is a leading infectious disease affecting children under five years old, particularly in developing countries where poor sanitation and poverty exacerbate the situation. The World Health Organization has identified malaria as a primary cause of mortality in this demographic. This study investigated climatic variability and malaria prevalence among children in Marakwet West Sub-County, focusing on spatio-temporal distribution, the association between climate variables and malaria prevalence, and the impact of control interventions. The specific objectives of the study included; to analyze spatio-temporal distribution of malaria prevalence among children, to assess the association of climate variables and malaria prevalence among children, to analyze the effect of climate variables on malaria prevalence among children and to assess the impact of malaria control interventions on incidences of malaria among children in Marakwet West Sub-County. The study used descriptive, empirical, and survey research designs. Semi-structured questionnaires for primary data and secondary data were used. Utilizing purposive and systematic random sampling, the research employed R-Studio and SPSS for data analysis, revealing a strong correlation between climate variations and malaria frequency among children. The findings indicate a significant decline in malaria prevalence from 2012 to 2022 (Mann-Kendall test, p < 0.05, Tau = -0.8808), with a notable nonlinear relationship between temperature and malaria transmission peaking at approximately 23°C. Additionally, over 51% of children reported contracting malaria in the three months prior to the survey, with stagnant water bodies near homes contributing to higher incidence rates. An average of 267 cases reported every month (M=266.67) suggests that the OND season has the largest number of malaria cases. The results showed a very weak negative association between time and annual rainfall, as indicated by the tau value of (-0.0926). The Mann-Kendall test findings for maximum temperature show a tau value (-0.141), indicating a slight negative association between time and maximum temperature. Correlation analysis indicated a negative correlation between annual rainfall and malaria prevalence (-0.1694) and a positive correlation between maximum temperature and malaria prevalence (0.3193). These results highlight the complex interplay between climate, environmental factors, and malaria transmission. The study underscores the potential for increased malaria prevalence due to climate change, particularly affecting vulnerable populations, in this case, children. The study conclusively finds that climatic variability significantly affects malaria prevalence among children in Elgeyo Marakwet West Sub County, with a notable decline in malaria cases from 2012 to 2022 attributed to both climate factors and improved control measures. It is recommended that policymakers integrate climate variability data into malaria control strategies to optimize resource allocation and enhance intervention effectiveness.
Description
A Research Project Report Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of Master of Environmental Studies (Climate Change and Sustainability) in the School Of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Kenyatta University, November 2025