Maize Output Supply Response to Climate Change in Kenya: An Econometric Analysis

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Date
2020Author
Kariuki, George Mbugua
Njaramba, Jennifer
Ombuki, Charles
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Sufficient production of maize in Kenya is synonymous to food
security and a source of income. Majority of the households in the country
grow maize as the main staple food and forms the diet of over 85 percent of
the population. Climate change potentially compromises maize production as
98 percent of agriculture is rainfed, threatening food security and rural
livelihoods. This study sought to understand the effects of the changing
temperature and rainfall patterns in Kenya on maize output. The study adopted
Autoregressive distributed lag econometric modeling approach using data for
the period between 1970 and 2014. The findings shows mixed response of
maize output to rainfall and temperature changes depending on the period,
with temperature variability having negative effects. In absence of climate
change adaptation and mitigation, Kenya will become more food insecure.
There is need to formulate all-inclusive policies paramount in building
adaptation and mitigation mechanisms.