A Statistical Investigation to Determine the Predisposing Risk Factors for Predicting Prevalence of Active Tuberculosis in North Pokot Sub County, West Pokot County, Kenya

Abstract

Tuberculosis is a major threat to world health. Finding out the TB cases and treatment of the disease are the tenet means of controlling TB transmission and reducing its incidence. In many industrialized countries, the prevalence of tuberculosis has declined significantly in the last decade, and elimination of TB has come back as a foreseeable goal, based on efficient treatment of overt TB cases and treatment of latent TB infection to prevent development of the disease. In developing countries, however, the number of TB cases is reported to increase steadily, especially in Africa South of Sahara, where TB is a leading cause of mortality. TB disease burden in Kenya is large and rising. Kenya is ranked 13th out of the 22 countries which collectively bring about 80% of TB cases in the World. It affects all age groups but more so the economically productive age group of 15 and 44 years. Few studies have considered the risk factors for tuberculosis at community level in highly resource-poor countries. The study was conducted in Kacheliba Sub-County hospital in West Pokot County. The aim of the study was to investigate and determine the predisposing risk factors for predicting the prevalence of active tuberculosis in the region. The study design which was employed was analytical cross sectional design targeting all persons above 15 years and children of 0-14 years. Hospital records and questionnaires were used in collecting data. Chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests at 5% level of significance were used in comparing pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence between subgroups in r × c tables. A Logistic regression model was used to determine the significant factors for predicting tuberculosis in North Pokot Sub-county. The study findings indicated that tuberculosis prevalence in North Pokot Sub-county was higher than the national prevalence; 9/1,000 and 2/1000 respectively. The logistic regression model indicated that, alcoholism, smoking and congestion as being statistically significant factors in predicting tuberculosis in North Pokot Sub-county. The study findings will be used by community health care workers in creating awareness among community members on predisposing factors for tuberculosis and on the need to sought medication early to avoid complication of the disease and further transmission.