PHD-Department of Economic Theory

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Browsing PHD-Department of Economic Theory by Subject "Adaptation Choices"

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    Vulnerability of Smallholder Maize Production to Climate Change and Adaptation Choices in Laikipia and Kitui Counties in Kenya
    (Kenyatta University, 2023) Kabara, Millicent Akinyi; Martin Etyang; Perez Onono
    Maize is a staple food for majority of Kenyans. However, unpredictable timing, frequency, duration, character and distribution of rainfall especially during the growing season and increasing temperatures are contributing to declining yields hence increased incidence of food insecurity. Inappropriate selection or application of adaptation choices could further contribute to low maize yields. However, vulnerability of smallholder maize production and levels of efficacy of adaptation is unclear. For Kitui and Laikipia counties in Kenya, the study investigated the extent and determinants of vulnerability of smallholder maize production to climate change. The levels of efficacy of adaptation of smallholder maize production to climate change were evaluated and determinants of the levels of efficacy were estimated. Data on demographics and socio-economic characteristics and adaptation choices was collected from smallholder maize producers using a questionnaire. Temperature data in degree Celsius was obtained from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly dataset gridded version 4 while monthly rainfall data in millimeters was obtained from Centennial Trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset version 1.0. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices were derived based on factor analysis and combined to obtain vulnerability index. Determinants of vulnerability of smallholder maize production to climate change was estimated based on Ordinary Least Squares. The level of efficacy of adaptation was evaluated based on the Multiple Criteria Evaluation while ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of level of efficacy of adaptation. Results showed that most of the smallholders were in the lowest tercile. However, most of the smallholders in Kitui County were in the highest tercile hence more vulnerable than smallholders in Laikipia County. Longer maize shortage, prevalence of climate related diseases, stored water lasting shorter period and being single increased vulnerability while receiving accurate climate information and eating alternatives to maize decreased vulnerability. In addition, majority of smallholders in the study reported low levels of efficacy of adaptation. Smallholders likely to report high levels of efficacy undertook soil analysis, had more farming experience, accessed extension services, produced maize in communally owned land and applied multiple adaptation choices. The study recommends support from state and non-state actors to facilitate provision of input subsidies, accurate and timely climate information; support towards water harvesting and construction of maize silos at Ward level to minimize vulnerability. In addition, build the capacity of smallholders to undertake frequent soil analysis; apply multiple adaptation choices and procure appropriate resources to enhance efficacy of adaptation.