Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Kenya

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has greater impacts on productivity through agricultural crop production, livestock production, energy and tourism. Countries all over the World have put adequate measures in place to combat or reduce its effects. This paper analyzed the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Kenya. The paper did answer two specific objectives; to determine the effect of climate change on crop production and to evaluate the effect of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. The study adopted time-series data on all the variables under study. Even though some studies considered the impacts of climate on crop production and on livestock production none actually considered the simultaneous effect on agricultural crop and livestock production. The study employed Ricardian Regression Model to analyze time-series data. A diagnostic research design was employed to carry out the study as it explored secondary sources of data which was analyzed using multivariate regression model and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) was carried out to check the stationary of the data. The variables considered for the study were crop production and livestock production as dependent variables while temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity as independent variables. The data for crop production and livestock production were obtained from economic surveys (KNBS) ministry of agriculture and International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) while temperature, rainfall and relative humidity from Kenya Metrological Department and World Bank. The study found out that temperature and relative humidity significantly affect agricultural productivity. Relative humidity was found to be positively related to agricultural productivity, temperature has negative relationship. The study recommended that government should sensitize the farmers on the need to carry out smart agriculture to reduce losses as a result of climatic change. The study also found out that rainfall positively related to agricultural productivity. Therefore, the study concluded that indeed climate change affect agricultural productivity in Kenya.